CATL LiFePo4 or lg chem batteries
“all the way” in the Chinese market has made Tesla bolder in increasing its production capacity. 11 Yue 9 days, according to sources, next year Tesla (Shanghai) factory plans to produce about 55 million vehicles, of which Model 3 models for the 30 million, Model the Y- models for the 25 Wanliang , “Tesla has core Parts suppliers place orders.” Musk should have fully felt the “China speed”, so the capacity expansion has become more rapid. Originally, the Tesla (Shanghai) plant planned to have a production capacity of 150,000 vehicles in 2020 , but according to the information released by Tesla earlier, the Shanghai plant has a production capacity of 250,000 vehicles this year . The Chinese market and “China Speed” have given Tesla great courage, and it is no wonder that it has raised its target for next year to 550,000 vehicles for the first time . In response to the goal of 550,000 vehicles, Tesla’s official response was: “The Chinese factory is progressing smoothly, and the specific production capacity and other figures are not available to the public. We continue to provide high-quality products and expand services for the Chinese market.” There is no denial, the implication should be acquiescence.
What does 550,000 vehicles mean?
Tesla immediately released itself and doubled its production capacity, which is undoubtedly supported by sufficient power battery supply. You know, in the past few years, Musk has repeatedly publicly complained about the limited capacity of Panasonic batteries, which affected the output of Model 3 . Today, the Tesla (Shanghai) factory has two power battery giants, CATL and LG Chem, competing for supply, which should basically solve the problem of power batteries. Of course, 550,000 vehicles, no matter who takes the power battery order, basically next year can sit and count money. According to public information, the Tesla (Shanghai) plant should mainly produce Model 3 and Model Y next year . Among them, Model 3 mainly has a standard battery life version and a long battery life version. The current situation of Model Y is unclear. Last month, Tesla (Shanghai) announced that the standard battery life version is 468km , which means that the standard battery life Model 3 equipped with Panasonic batteries and LG Chemical in the past has been discontinued, and the
standard battery life version Model 3 will use Ningde Times lithium iron phosphate battery ; Long-life Model 3 still uses LG Chem’s cylindrical ternary battery.
In addition, according to China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s recent declaration of Model Y models, this model also uses ternary batteries, most likely from LG Chem. From the perspective of charged power, the lithium iron phosphate version of Model 3 has a charged power of 55kWh , the long-range version of Model 3 has a charged power of 76.8kWh , and the Model Y has a charged power of about 75kWh . According to the plan Tesla (Shanghai) factory production next year will be 30 ten thousand Model 3 , Standard Edition life is even with relatively low power consumption Model 3 , 30 required battery will be up to ten thousand 16.5GWh ; and if we are all long-life version of Model 3 , battery demand is estimated at 23GWh ; plus 25 Wanliang Model Y driven 18.75GWh demand for batteries, this 55 Wanliang Tesla Motors, battery power installed capacity is expected to drive behind 35.25GWh~41.75GWh .
CATL and LG Chem, who will get more “soup”?
At present, the only battery supporting companies in the Tesla (Shanghai) plant are Ningde Times and LG Chem. It is estimated that it will be difficult for other battery manufacturers to enter. In the future, how the two companies divide such large orders is worth speculating. According to the current situation, we can also roughly speculate some situations. If the Ningde era next year does not have lithium iron phosphate or ternary batteries for Tesla (Shanghai) factory long-life Model 3 and Model Y models, LG Chem will still be a greater beneficiary. The specific reasons are as follows:
- 1. The first three quarters of this year , Tesla (Shanghai) plant mass-produced 87,284 Model 3, of which the number of long-life Model 3 is 17,162, accounting for about 20%, indicating that the long-life Model 3 itself is also popular enough;
- 2. Long battery life The Model 3 has a cruising range of 668km, which is 200km longer than the current ordinary version. It is worth noting that Tesla (Shanghai) lowered the price of the endurance version of Model 3 by 34,150 yuan on October 1st to 309,000 yuan. Although the price of the standard endurance version of Model 3 has also dropped and dropped to less than 250,000 yuan, the long endurance version of Model 3 has dropped from 340,000 yuan to less than 310,000 yuan, which will have a relatively large impact on its sales. The proportion of sales will exceed the current 20%. Driven by sales growth, it is expected that the Tesla (Shanghai) plant will have an increase in the share of the 300,000 Model 3 mid- and long-range version next year;
- 3. Considering that Model Y is supplied by LG Chem, the long-range version Model 3 It is also supported by LG Chem. It is expected that the output of these two models will be more than 300,000. LG Chem will undoubtedly remain the biggest battery supply beneficiary of Tesla (Shanghai) plant. If the Tesla (Shanghai) plant can achieve an output of 550,000 vehicles next year , and according to the above speculation, next year, the Tesla (Shanghai) plant will drive LG Chem’s installed capacity to exceed 22.59GWh , and may even exceed 25GWh . From January to September this year , LG Chem’s global power battery installed capacity is currently only 19.9GWh . That is to say, relying on Tesla’s drive, LG Chem’s power battery installed capacity is expected to double next year . But it needs to be pointed out that although LG Chem’s installed capacity in the first three quarters of this year was only 19.9GWh , it has surpassed the Panasonic battery and Ningde era and ranks No. 1 in the world . According to the above analysis, for the Ningde era, although Tesla’s orders may be less than LG Chem ’s, Tesla’s orders for power batteries for the Ningde era next year will be at least 15GWh , which is also very high. optimism. You know, CATL ‘s installed capacity in the Chinese market from January to September this year is about 16.10GWh . It is worth mentioning that this order also has a high probability of making Model 3 the largest single supporting model of the Ningde era next year. The production capacity plan of 550,000 vehicles will undoubtedly continue to consolidate the positions of CATL and LG Chem in the global power battery list.
Next year, LG Chem and CATL may compete for the first and second position, and Panasonic Battery can keep the third position. It depends on the offensive of BYD and other companies .
Of course, it does not rule out that BYD’s offensive is too fierce, competing with Ningde era and LG Chem in the top two positions, but the probability is still somewhat small.
550,000 capacity! For sales, what cards will Tesla play?
Tesla (Shanghai) has set itself a “small target” of 550,000 vehicles. This value is not high. After all, compared with the sales performance of traditional car giants, which are often millions of vehicles, Tesla is still low-key. In addition, China has policies from the central and local governments to support the development of the new energy automobile industry, and the environment for the development of the new energy automobile industry has been improving. As a leading brand of electric vehicles in the world, Tesla has a relatively good market acceptance and recognition. High, the continuous high sales transcripts in the first three quarters of this year also proved its popularity in the market. In addition,
Tesla also plans these 55 Wanliang production in about 10 Wanliang Model 3 models for export, Model the Y- models are also plans to export 1 million. However, 440,000 vehicles are not without pressure for Tesla : on the one hand, Tesla faces competition from Chinese independent brands in price and channels ; on the other hand, traditional international car giants such as Volkswagen, BMW, Dairy Muller, Toyota, GM, etc. are also rapidly launching electric models, competing with Tesla for the Chinese market .
At the same time, from the perspective of Tesla’s current sales regional distribution, it also has its own dilemmas. According to industry statistics, as of the end of September this year , Tesla has licensed approximately 80,000 Model 3 vehicles in China , of which approximately 47,800 vehicles have been licensed in purchase-restricted cities , accounting for 59.43% of the entire sales area. The top sales cities are respectively. For Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing. It can be seen that Tesla is still very dependent on purchase-restricted cities. It is worth noting that purchase-restricted cities like Beijing have very limited new energy vehicle quotas each year. There are also a number of Chinese independent brands and international car giants fighting each other. These cities will also contribute a relative share to Tesla in the future. Limited, it is difficult to digest Tesla’s doubled production capacity. At the moment, Tesla urgently needs to open up broader markets, such as China’s new first-tier cities, second-tier, third-tier, fourth-tier and below markets. For this type of market, what card will Tesla play? In fact, do not have to think about it, Tesla has tried repeatedly: lower prices! In the next step, there is a high probability that Tesla will continue to harvest more markets by cutting prices. In June of this year , Tao Lin, Tesla’s vice president of external affairs, announced Tesla ’s plans to settle in 45 cities in China , including a large number of second and third tier cities, such as Hefei, Wuxi, Jinhua, Shaoxing, Changzhou, Fuzhou, Haikou, Nanchang , Huizhou, Jiangmen, Kunming, Xining, etc. For second- and third-tier cities, the price of new cars is still an important factor affecting car purchase. Tesla, accustomed to being a “price butcher”, has cut prices in the Chinese market 5 times this year, and the price of the standard battery life Model 3 has also reached 25 Below ten thousand yuan. As the production capacity of its Shanghai plant doubles next year, the localization of parts is close to 100% , and costs will continue to fall. In order to open up more markets in China, it is not ruled out that Tesla continues to act as a “price butcher”. Of course, if Tesla continues to cut prices, then the standard battery life Model 3 will be the first to bear the brunt in the future, and the long battery life Model 3 and Model Y will follow closely. It does not rule out that the price of the Model 3 standard battery life version is more attractive, driving Model 3 production and sales. Significant increase, increasing the share of power battery shipments in the Ningde era.